BLD Pulse
- PPI: inputs to construction May 474.9 (+0.25% m/m) BLS PPI WPU132
- PPI: construction materials May 357.8 (-0.03% m/m) BLS PPI WPU1322
- Steel PPI (WPU101704) May 292.8 (-0.78% m/m) BLS PPI WPU101704
- Lumber PPI (WPU081) May 281.0 (+0.29% m/m) BLS PPI WPU081
- Cement PPI (WPU1331) May 409.5 (+0.10% m/m) BLS PPI WPU1331
- On-highway diesel (U.S. avg) $4.832/gal (week of 06/22) EIA Gasoline & Diesel Update
- Copper 6.07 USD/lb (06/25; up 2.18% d/d, directional) Trading Economics – Copper
- Aluminum 3,159.65 USD/tonne (06/25; up 1.30% d/d, directional) Trading Economics – Aluminum
Executive snapshot
- Neutral Cost tape is broadly flat-to-up into summer: inputs-to-construction +0.25% m/m in May, while construction materials were essentially unchanged (−0.03% m/m). BLS PPI WPU132/WPU1322
- Cautious Steel PPI eased (−0.78% m/m) in May, but the tariff overlay remains a bid-day risk: Section 232 steel/aluminum tariffs were increased to 50% effective June 4, 2025 (UK exception at 25%). BDO – Section 232 update
- Neutral Housing pipeline stayed moderate in the latest release: permits 1.413M SAAR; starts 1.177M; single-family starts 0.886M (all SAAR). Census NRC
- Deteriorating Design leading indicator: AIA/Deltek ABI fell to 44.5 in May (contraction), with project inquiries at 49.4 and design contracts at 45.0. AIA/Deltek ABI
- Cautious Power-delivery constraints continue to govern data-center schedules: DOE notes distribution-transformer lead times have stretched from 3–6 months (2019) to 1–2 years or longer (latest data cited: 2024). DOE OE webinar transcript
- Positive Fuel is providing some relief: EIA’s U.S. diesel average is $4.832/gal for week of 06/22 (down from $5.059 week prior). EIA Gasoline & Diesel Update
- Neutral Phoenix (spotlight metro) industrial is rebalancing: Q1 2026 vacancy 12.4% with 7.5M SF leased and 4.4M SF net absorption; deliveries slowed to 1.2M SF. AZ Big Media (Phoenix industrial)
Market movers
| Item | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Diesel | $4.832/gal ▼ | U.S. average week of 06/22; down $0.227 w/w. EIA Gasoline & Diesel Update |
| Steel PPI (WPU101704) | -0.78% m/m ▼ | May index 292.8. BLS PPI WPU101704 |
| Lumber PPI (WPU081) | +0.29% m/m ▲ | May index 281.0. BLS PPI WPU081 |
| Inputs to construction PPI (WPU132) | +0.25% m/m ▲ | May index 474.9. BLS PPI WPU132 |
| Copper (spot, directional) | +2.18% d/d ▲ | Trading Economics CFD quote 06/25: 6.07 USD/lb. Trading Economics – Copper |
| ABI (AIA/Deltek) | 44.5 ▼ | May reading; <50 implies contraction in billings. AIA/Deltek ABI |
Sector outlooks
| Sector | Outlook | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Data centers / power | Cautious | Transformer lead times remain multi-year; procurement is now on the critical path. DOE OE webinar transcript |
| Industrial / logistics | Neutral | Phoenix absorption outpaced deliveries in Q1; deliveries cooled materially. AZ Big Media (Phoenix industrial) |
| Nonres design pipeline | Deteriorating | ABI 44.5 suggests continued softness in near-term design-to-bid flow. AIA/Deltek ABI |
| Public / infrastructure | Cautious | Bid risk remains skewed to electrical gear and specialty metals; plan early procurement. DOE OE webinar transcript |
| Multifamily | Neutral | Permits and starts are steady but not accelerating; underwriting remains rate-sensitive. Census NRC |
| Single-family | Neutral | Single-family starts 0.886M SAAR in latest release; watch incentives vs. construction labor tightness. Census NRC |
Strategic watchlist
- Structural steel & rebar: even with May steel PPI easing m/m, Section 232 tariff structure can create fabricated-steel premium volatility at bid day. BLS PPI + BDO tariffs
- Phoenix site selection: validate power availability and interconnect timeline early; long-lead transformers can dominate schedule. DOE OE webinar transcript
- Diesel trend: fuel relief is helping temporary logistics and equipment ops; lock assumptions weekly. EIA Gasoline & Diesel Update
- Design-to-bid timing: ABI contraction suggests fewer projects converting in late 2026 unless financing loosens. AIA/Deltek ABI
Top questions leaders should be asking
- Which scopes on our Q3/Q4 backlog are transformer/switchgear-gated (vs. labor-gated), and what can we pre-buy now?
- For industrial shells, are we carrying a separate line item for Section 232 tariff uncertainty on fabricated steel?
- In Phoenix, do our site shortlists include both power-ready parcels and a permitting path for substations/lines?
- How sensitive is our 2026 multifamily pipeline to starts/permits staying ~flat versus stepping down?
- What leading indicators (ABI, inquiries, RFPs) are we tracking weekly to anticipate a bid volume inflection?
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