BLD Pulse
- Steel mill products PPI: 312.218 (June 2026) — +5.46% m/m. BLS PPI WPU101704
- Inputs to construction industries PPI: 478.415 (June 2026) — +0.60% m/m. BLS PPI WPU132
- Construction materials PPI: 357.833 (June 2026) — +0.11% m/m. BLS PPI WPU1322
- Lumber & wood products PPI: 280.114 (June 2026) — -0.36% m/m. BLS PPI WPU081
- Cement PPI: 409.042 (June 2026) — +0.00% m/m. BLS PPI WPU1331
- Building permits (SAAR): 1,367,000. US Census NRC
- Housing starts (SAAR): 1,427,000; single-family starts: 871,000. US Census NRC
- Turner Building Cost Index (Q2 2026): 1552 (+1.44% q/q; +5.15% y/y). Turner
Executive snapshot
- Cautious Cost inflation remains sticky: June PPIs show inputs-to-construction still rising (+0.60% m/m) with steel up sharply (+5.46% m/m). BLS PPI WPU132
- Neutral Housing is holding: permits (1,367,000 SAAR) and starts (1,427,000 SAAR) keep baseline labor demand supported. US Census NRC
- Deteriorating Design pipeline still weak: AIA/Deltek ABI stayed below 50 in June (47.3), signaling continued contraction for architectural billings. AIA
- Cautious Nonresidential cost benchmark: Turner’s Q2 Building Cost Index rose 1.44% q/q (5.15% y/y) — bid-day volatility is back in select scopes. Turner
- Cautious Metals check (directional): copper ~6.33 USD/lb; aluminum ~3,148.6 USD/tonne (Jul 28). Trading Economics
- Neutral Spotlight today: Atlanta (leasing/power watch) + Drywall & Interior Finishes (interiors cost deep-dive). BLD Pulse
- Neutral Near-term play: prioritize early buy packages where lead times + pricing are re-accelerating (steel-heavy scopes, switchgear/transformers, and TI interiors). Turner
Market movers
| Item | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Steel mill products PPI | +5.46% m/m ▲ | Steel inputs re-accelerated; watch structural + rebar exposure in GMP updates. BLS PPI WPU101704 |
| Inputs to construction industries PPI | +0.60% m/m ▲ | Broad input costs still rising; keep escalation language tight on long-duration work. BLS PPI WPU132 |
| Construction materials PPI | +0.11% m/m ▲ | Overall materials index is slightly higher m/m; volatility remains scope-specific. BLS PPI WPU1322 |
| Lumber & wood products PPI | -0.36% m/m ▼ | Wood products slightly lower m/m; framing packages may be less volatile near-term. BLS PPI WPU081 |
| Copper (spot, Jul 28) | 6.33 USD/lb (directional) ▲ | Electrical and MEP alternates remain important; validate takeoffs and allowances. Trading Economics |
| Turner Building Cost Index | +1.44% q/q ▲ | Benchmarked nonresidential costs moved higher; expect more bid dispersion. Turner |
Sector outlooks
| Sector | Outlook | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Data centers | Cautious | High-growth sector activity persists; power + long-lead electrical gear are still gating items. Turner |
| Industrial / logistics | Neutral | Supported by manufacturing/reshoring, but underwriting is increasingly rent-growth sensitive. Turner |
| Public / infrastructure | Positive | Backlogs remain strong; procurement cadence + labor availability are the constraint. Turner |
| Multifamily | Cautious | Multifamily-specialist backlogs fell from 6.2 to 5.3 months (June ABI note), keeping new starts selective. AIA |
| Single-family | Neutral | Single-family starts are 871,000 SAAR; affordability keeps incentives in play. US Census NRC |
| Office / TI | Cautious | ABI remains sub-50; TI-heavy scopes face finish-trade labor sensitivity (drywall/finishes spotlight). AIA |
Strategic watchlist
- Drywall & interior finishes: track gypsum/coatings inputs + crew availability as TI work competes with healthcare/education interiors. BLS PPI WPU132
- Atlanta: power availability and large-load interconnection timelines are increasingly dictating DC feasibility and delivery schedules. Turner
- Steel-heavy scopes: June steel PPI spike is a reminder to re-quote structural packages before GMP lock. BLS PPI WPU101704
- Design momentum: watch whether ABI can re-cross 50; sustained sub-50 typically precedes pricing pressure in GC pursuit funnels. AIA
Top questions leaders should be asking
- Where are you still carrying commodity exposure (steel, copper, aluminum) without a lock or hedge?
- Which packages should be early-bought in the next 30 days to protect schedule (switchgear/transformers, steel, TI interiors)?
- In your top 3 pursuit markets, are power constraints now a gating item in feasibility?
- Are multifamily concessions and lease-up pacing changing your underwriting or phasing assumptions?
- What leading indicator do you trust most right now for 6–12 month backlog: ABI, permits/starts, or your own bid-hit rate?
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