BLD Pulse
- June materials and components for construction rose 4.3% y/y; materials for construction rose 4.0%. Treat national easing or acceleration as a screen, not a project-specific buy-out. BLS PPI June 2026
- June steel mill-products PPI was +16.9% y/y, while softwood lumber was +6.2% and cement -0.6%; the envelope and metals package still needs separate basis checks. BLS PPI June 2026
- AGC reports June inputs to new nonresidential construction -0.5% m/m but +8.4% y/y; the monthly pullback does not erase the elevated cost base. AGC/BLS Construction Data July 2026
- Trading Economics showed copper at $6.5705/lb (-1.74%), aluminum at $3,276.50/t (+0.22%) and lumber at $579/1,000 board feet (+0.17%) on Aug. 7; directional spot only. Trading Economics Commodities
- Census June permits were 1.367M SAAR, total starts 1.427M and single-family starts 895K; permits fell 3.0% m/m while total starts rose 19.0% from revised May. U.S. Census New Residential Construction
- AIA forecasts 2026 nonresidential building spending -0.3%, but data centers +33%, commercial +4.8% and traditional office -5.1%; commercial is a K-shaped allocation problem. AIA July 2026 Consensus Forecast
- Columbus industrial Q2 vacancy was 5.2%, with 1.9M SF absorption, $6.76/SF asking rent and 9.0M SF under construction; the featured market is strong but supply is arriving. CBRE Columbus Industrial Q2 2026
- EIA projects data-center server electricity use of 446–818 BkWh by 2050; JLL says average wait time for new 50 MW grid connections in primary markets exceeds four years. EIA Data Center Server Energy Use
Executive snapshot
- Cautious Roofing & envelope lead the cost narrative: Gordian puts July fiberglass insulation at $0.65/SF, up 19.14% y/y, while BLS shows prepared asphalt/tar roofing and siding products +2.2% y/y. Re-price insulation, membrane, metal panels, fasteners and labor as separate packages. Gordian July 2026 Insulation Update
- Cautious Nonresidential cost pressure remains uneven: AGC/BLS shows June inputs for new nonresidential construction -0.5% m/m but +8.4% y/y; steel mill products were +16.9% y/y and asphalt +47.5%. A monthly pause is not broad relief. AGC/BLS Construction Data July 2026
- Deteriorating Metals remain a live envelope and MEP variable: copper was $6.5705/lb and aluminum $3,276.50/t on Aug. 7 in Trading Economics directional data. Lock origin, quote validity and alternates before design freeze. Trading Economics Commodities
- Positive Columbus is the featured selection test: 1.9M SF of Q2 absorption and 5.2% vacancy support industrial demand, but 9.0M SF under construction means submarket, timing and tenant evidence matter more than metro headline. CBRE Columbus Industrial Q2 2026
- Cautious Design demand remains selective: June ABI was 47.3, with commercial/industrial 46.7 and multifamily 45.6; inquiries were 56.1 and design contracts 49.8. Track signed work and backlog conversion, not inquiries alone. AIA/Deltek ABI June 2026
- Deteriorating Power is part of site entitlement: JLL reports primary-market grid-connection waits above four years for new 50 MW data centers, while Reuters reports generator step-up transformers above 160 weeks and high-voltage breakers at 125 weeks. JLL 2026 Global Data Center Outlook
- Deteriorating Tariff exposure is package-specific: AGC lists 50% treatment for mostly-metal steel/aluminum/copper goods, 25% for substantial derivatives, 15% for certain industrial/electrical grid equipment and 10% for softwood lumber. AGC Tariff Resource Center
Market movers
| Item | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Fiberglass insulation | $0.65/SF; +19.14% y/y ▲ | Use a material-specific escalation log for polyiso/fiberglass, membrane, metal panels, fasteners, waste and labor; do not bury the envelope in one allowance. Gordian July 2026 Insulation Update |
| Steel mill products PPI | +16.9% y/y ▲ | Revalidate roof deck, flashing, edge metal, structural supports, fasteners and other steel content before commitment. BLS PPI June 2026 |
| Cement PPI | -0.6% y/y ▼ | A modest national decline does not remove regional ready-mix, haul, placement and schedule risk. BLS PPI June 2026 |
| Columbus industrial absorption | +1.9M SF in Q2 ▲ | Vacancy was 5.2%, asking rent $6.76/SF and the pipeline 9.0M SF; strong demand still needs delivery-curve underwriting. CBRE Columbus Industrial Q2 2026 |
| Data-center equipment lead times | 160+ weeks GSU transformers; 125 weeks HV breakers ▲ | Reserve factory slots, approve basis-of-design and map FAT, shipping, site receipt and energization to the critical path. Reuters Grid Equipment |
| Housing permits / starts | 1.367M / 1.427M SAAR ▲ | Permits fell 3.0% m/m while starts rose 19.0% from revised May; treat forward pipeline and current activity as different signals. U.S. Census New Residential Construction |
Sector outlooks
| Sector | Outlook | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Data centers | Positive | Demand remains strong, but grid connection and electrical equipment are the gating variables EIA Data Center Server Energy Use |
| Industrial / logistics | Positive | Columbus absorption and rent growth are positive, but 9.0M SF under construction raises delivery timing risk CBRE Columbus Industrial Q2 2026 |
| Public / infrastructure | Neutral | AEP and DOE-backed 765-kV investment supports power build-out, but approvals and equipment slots control schedule AEP Ohio Digital Infrastructure |
| Multifamily | Neutral | Q2 absorption outpaced completions in all 69 CBRE markets; new starts remain market- and delivery-curve-specific CBRE U.S. Multifamily Q2 2026 |
| Single-family | Neutral | Starts are active, but permits softened and affordability keeps the forward pipeline measured U.S. Census New Residential Construction |
| Office / commercial | Cautious | The aggregate commercial outlook masks a data-center surge alongside traditional-office and manufacturing weakness AIA July 2026 Consensus Forecast |
Strategic watchlist
- Roofing & envelope buy-out: split insulation, single-ply membrane, metal panels, flashings, fasteners, labor and weather/productivity; record quote validity, origin and approved alternates. Gordian July 2026 Insulation Update
- Columbus site screen: pair 5.2% vacancy and $6.76/SF asking rent with tenant evidence, submarket delivery timing, labor draw, Intel/advanced-manufacturing adjacency and AEP power milestones. CBRE Columbus Industrial Q2 2026
- Tariff stack: map 50% mostly-metal, 25% substantial-derivative, 15% electrical/grid-equipment and 10% softwood-lumber rates to HTS classification, origin and change-in-law clauses. AGC Tariff Resource Center
- Design conversion: ABI 47.3 and AIA’s -0.3% overall 2026 nonresidential forecast support selective pursuits; separate data-center backlog from ordinary office and manufacturing. AIA July 2026 Consensus Forecast
Top questions leaders should be asking
- Which roofing and envelope quotes expire before buy-out, and what insulation, membrane, metal-panel, fastener and labor assumptions need revalidation?
- For Columbus, is the target submarket supported by tenant evidence and delivery timing, or are we capitalizing 9.0M SF of pipeline as if it were already absorbed?
- Which imported envelope, steel, aluminum, copper and electrical-equipment scopes carry Section 232 exposure, and are origin and HTS assumptions documented?
- Do our data-center sites have written staged power, factory-slot and energization plans, or only a conceptual utility conversation?
- Are ABI inquiries converting into signed work in our target sectors, and are we separating data-center growth from ordinary office and manufacturing demand?
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