BLD Pulse
- July inputs to construction industries rose 0.15% m/m; construction materials eased 0.10%, cement slipped 0.01%, lumber rose 3.92% and steel mill products rose 2.44%. The blended index is calmer than several trade-level moves. BLS PPI construction
- Featured drywall & interior finishes screen: aggregate inputs do not replace package-level validation. Mortenson reports national nonresidential costs up 1.69% q/q and 6.77% y/y in Q1; refresh gypsum, labor, coatings, accessories and TI allowances at bid. Mortenson Cost Index
- EIA's Aug. 12 WPSR put national on-highway diesel at $5.257/gal, down $0.091 w/w but up $1.503 y/y; keep excavation, haul, cranes and delivery bases explicit. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Trading Economics' Aug. 14 directional tape showed copper $6.5708/lb (-0.33% daily; +0.01% weekly) and aluminum $3,246.35/t (+0.15% daily; -0.83% weekly). Treat OTC/CFD levels as a screen, not a supplier quote. Trading Economics Commodities
- Section 232 duties effective Apr. 6 apply to the full customs value of covered steel, aluminum and copper articles/derivatives; standard rates are 50% for Annex I-A and 25% for Annex I-B, with qualifying U.S.-origin content treatments. Federal Register Section 232
- Census June permits were 1.367M SAAR, total starts 1.427M and single-family permits 871K; permits fell 3.0% m/m while starts rose 19.0% m/m, with the published confidence intervals noted. U.S. Census New Residential Construction
- June ABI was 47.3, inquiries 56.1, design contracts 49.8 and Q2 average backlog 6.3 months, down from 6.6 in Q1. Billings stayed below the 50 expansion/contraction line. AIA/Deltek ABI June 2026
- Featured Atlanta industrial posted 4.4M SF Q2 absorption, 9% vacancy and $7.43/SF asking rent in JLL's read; CBRE's Q2 figure showed 8.2% direct vacancy and 2.6M SF absorption, underscoring methodology differences. JLL Atlanta Industrial Q2 2026
Executive snapshot
- Cautious Drywall/interior finishes lead today's cost narrative: July construction materials eased 0.10%, but Mortenson's Q1 nonresidential index was up 6.77% y/y. Separate gypsum board, metal framing, finish labor, paint/coatings, accessories and tenant-improvement allowances before GMP. Mortenson Cost Index
- Cautious Fuel is sequentially better but still elevated: EIA reported $5.257/gal national diesel, down $0.091 w/w and $1.503 above a year earlier. Carry fuel sensitivity through sitework, haul and logistics rather than hiding it in a general contingency. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
- Neutral Housing is mixed: June permits were 1.367M SAAR, down 3.0% m/m and 2.3% y/y; total starts were 1.427M, up 19.0% m/m and 3.5% y/y. The starts confidence interval includes zero, so permits remain the cleaner forward screen. U.S. Census New Residential Construction
- Cautious Design demand remains soft: ABI improved to 47.3, but commercial/industrial was 46.7, multifamily 45.6 and Q2 backlog slipped to 6.3 months. Convert inquiries into signed contracts before staffing to a recovery. AIA/Deltek ABI June 2026
- Positive Data-center demand remains the strongest construction arm: AGC's 2026 outlook put data-center contractors' net reading at 57% and power facilities at 34%; Reuters reports GSU transformer lead times above 160 weeks and high-voltage circuit breakers at 125 weeks. AGC 2026 Construction Outlook
- Neutral Atlanta is active but selective: JLL recorded 4.4M SF of Q2 industrial absorption and 9% vacancy; CBRE's midyear outlook expects high-8% to low-9% vacancy through year-end, with asking rents up about 8% y/y and projected rent growth of 2.6%. CBRE Atlanta Midyear Outlook 2026
- Cautious Power is a site-selection gate: EIA projects data-center server electricity use to reach 22%–33% of commercial-building electricity use by 2050 across its cases. Treat interconnection, equipment slots and energization milestones as underwriting gates. EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2026
Market movers
| Item | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Lumber & wood products PPI | +3.92% m/m in July ▲ | Revalidate wood framing, sheathing and millwork allowances; the trade move is more decision-useful than the aggregate index for wood-exposed scopes. BLS PPI lumber |
| Steel mill products PPI | +2.44% m/m in July ▲ | Refresh structural, rebar, supports and envelope scopes; preserve quote validity and origin/content evidence under Section 232. BLS PPI steel |
| Drywall/interior finishes cost screen | Nonresidential cost index +1.69% q/q and +6.77% y/y in Q1 ▲ | Use trade-specific gypsum, labor, coatings and accessories quotes; do not infer a finishes allowance from the blended construction index. Mortenson Cost Index |
| Diesel fuel | $5.257/gal; -$0.091 w/w and +$1.503 y/y ▼ | Sequential relief does not remove annualized fuel risk; carry local fuel, haul and equipment assumptions through bid and delivery. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report |
| Copper / aluminum directional spot | Copper $6.5708/lb (-0.33% daily); aluminum $3,246.35/t (+0.15% daily) on Aug. 14 ▲ | Directional OTC/CFD screen only. Confirm supplier basis, alloy, origin, quote validity, tariff treatment and escalation language before releasing MEP packages. Trading Economics Commodities |
| Atlanta industrial absorption / vacancy | 4.4M SF Q2 absorption; 9% vacancy in JLL read ▼ | Demand is real but methodology differs across brokers; reconcile absorption, pipeline, concessions and submarket labor before land or speculative starts. JLL Atlanta Industrial Q2 2026 |
Sector outlooks
| Sector | Outlook | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Data centers | Positive | Strong demand; power, transformers, switchgear and cooling equipment are gating variables AGC 2026 Construction Outlook |
| Industrial / logistics | Positive | Atlanta Q2 absorption was 4.4M SF at 9% vacancy; national vacancy fell to 6.5% as demand outpaced completions JLL Atlanta Industrial Q2 2026 |
| Public / infrastructure | Cautious | Contractor expectations remain positive but weaker: bridge/highway net reading 10%, transportation 11%, public buildings 1% AGC 2026 Construction Outlook |
| Multifamily | Neutral | Atlanta rent growth tracking about 1.9% with the pipeline down about 60% from its 2023 peak; national vacancy forecast 4.9% CBRE Atlanta Midyear Outlook 2026 |
| Single-family | Cautious | June single-family permits were 871K SAAR and starts 895K; permits fell 2.4% m/m and starts 0.2% m/m U.S. Census New Residential Construction |
| Office / commercial | Cautious | Atlanta office Q2 absorption was 543K SF and availability 30.3%, while AIA forecasts traditional office spending -5.1% in 2026 CBRE Atlanta Office Q2 2026 |
Strategic watchlist
- Drywall and interior finishes: price gypsum board, metal framing, finish labor, paint/coatings and accessories separately; watch TI allowance compression and quote-validity drift. ENR Construction Economics Aug. 10, 2026
- Tariff pass-through: map steel, aluminum and copper content by HTS classification, country of melt/smelt/cast and derivative article before committing imported material. Federal Register Section 232
- Atlanta site selection: reconcile JLL and CBRE vacancy/absorption measures; require tenant evidence, labor draw, power path, concessions and submarket delivery sequencing. CBRE Atlanta Midyear Outlook 2026
- Long-lead electrical: reserve transformers, breakers, switchgear and cooling equipment against dated utility milestones; factory slots are now a critical-path item. Reuters Grid Equipment
Top questions leaders should be asking
- Which drywall/interior-finish packages are still carried as allowances, and what supplier quotes, labor basis and quote-validity dates support them?
- What is the project's exposure to the April 6 Section 232 full-customs-value treatment, and do we have melt/smelt/cast and derivative-content evidence?
- For Atlanta, what submarket-level tenant, labor, utility and preleasing evidence supports the next land or speculative-start decision?
- Which transformer, switchgear, breaker and cooling-equipment orders are on the critical path, and what is the dated factory-slot and energization plan?
- Are current inquiries converting into signed design contracts and permits, or are we staffing and buying against leading indicators that remain below expansion?
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