Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Executive snapshot

• Cautious Demand is not broad-based: July construction spending was $2,157.6B SAAR, down 3.8% year over year. The 0.5% monthly decline is within the reported ±0.8% uncertainty. Recommendation: set pursuit capacity by sector, not the national headline. Census | July 2026 spending
• Cautious August construction inputs rose 1.2% month over month and 8.9% year over year in ABC's basket. This measures input inflation, not installed bid escalation. Revalidate labor, freight, duties and productivity separately before converting budgets to GMPs. ABC | August input prices
• Positive Data centers remain capacity-constrained: CBRE's primary-market H1 vacancy was 1.4%, and 80.4% of construction was preleased. Demand is strong, but power dates and local approvals still determine whether a parcel becomes a deliverable project. CBRE | H1 2026 data centers
• Positive Atlanta is today's metro focus: CBRE measured 2,882 MW under construction in H1, ahead of Northern Virginia. Underwrite phased energization, commissioning and cost allocation; do not equate a construction pipeline with capacity available to lease. CBRE | H1 2026 data centers
• Cautious Drywall and interior finishes lead the trade focus: August gypsum prices rose 0.7% monthly and annually. Copper wire and cable rose 4.2% monthly and 27.3% annually. Price the wall assembly and its electrical interfaces as separate exposures. Yield PRO | August materials
• Positive Industrial demand is improving selectively: Q2 net absorption was 85.1M SF against 47.9M SF of completions; vacancy fell to 6.5%. DFW, Houston and Phoenix led H1 absorption. Favor tenant-backed packages and modern product over blanket speculative starts. CBRE | Q2 industrial
• Cautious Entitlement risk is live: Charlotte's new-data-center moratorium does not stop already approved projects, including Digital Realty expansions. Separate grandfathered approvals from new applications and confirm each parcel's actual status. Axios Charlotte | September 17
• Neutral Northern Nevada improved, but is not supply-starved: Colliers' Q2 industrial vacancy fell to 11.5% with 2.04M SF absorption. Treat Reno/TRIC logistics and data-center investment as different underwriting cases; a stronger quarter does not erase competing space. NVBEX / Colliers | Reno Q2

Market movers

Sector outlooks

Strategic watchlist

• Texas air permits: San Antonio plaintiffs challenge generator permits; the September 22 report describes allegations, not a court ruling. Verify permit and injunction status before committing mobilization. WOAI | San Antonio permit lawsuit
• Georgia power economics: the Google nuclear-upgrade subscription is proposed and needs PSC approval. Claimed benefits are not guaranteed savings or a project-specific energization commitment. WSB | Georgia nuclear proposal
• Nevada incentives: a legislative committee's proposed 2027 bill is not an enacted statewide data-center ban. Keep incentive and entitlement assumptions conditional. Arizona Capitol Times | September 20
• Hotel conversion opportunity: Q2 conversion pipeline reached 1,567 projects. Screen reuse against code, building systems and brand requirements before assuming a faster path. Lodging Econometrics | Q2 pipeline

Top questions leaders should be asking

• Which pursuits have evidence of tenant commitment, financing, power and permission rather than only a sponsor announcement?
• Where does our estimate separate material-index movement from labor, productivity, freight and contractual escalation?
• Which Atlanta projects have a credible energization and commissioning sequence that matches the construction promise?
• Are our Reno/TRIC underwriting rents and lease-up periods supported by comparable signed leases after concessions?
• What dated permit, utility or market evidence would make us stop, reprice or phase the next investment?